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- Migration Of Servers From CentOS To Rocky
- Taking A SWAG (Scientific Wild Ass Guess)
Note: This transcript was created using speech recognition software. While it has been reviewed by human transcribers, it may contain errors.
Full Webinar Transcript:
Migration Of Servers From CentOS To Rocky
It is crystal ball time. Mystic Knight wants to know if anyone is going to make a prediction on how many servers are going to migrate from CentOS to Rocky over the next year. Who has a crystal ball to try and answer that one?
Taking A SWAG (Scientific Wild Ass Guess)
Well, I have some data on this, but it is just a little bit of actual data, a little bit of a SWAG, and then we could take a bigger SWAG. I am not sure if I can say this, so censor me. A SWAG to me is a scientific wild ass guess. I am going to take a SWAG at this.
Okay. I can work with that.
We have had about, I think it is about 600,000 to 700,000 downloads from our tier zero Mirror, if I remember the numbers right. At this point, and we have been released now for what has it been? Mustafa, Robert by three months or so. I think it has been somewhere around there. That is our tier zero Mirror. That is our top prime CDN Mirror. Now, we have about a hundred tier one Mirrors. We don't have visibility into how many downloads those tier one Mirrors are doing, but based on some conversations we have had with some of the hosts of these Mirrors, we think that our tier zero Mirror is basically satisfying roughly 50% of the downloads. A lot. Then the tier one Mirrors are basically doing the other 50%. If we have, let's just say three quarters of a million-ish downloads from our tier zero that means we have about 1.5 million downloads in about what, three months, for each download.
In terms of conversations I have had personally with Enterprises and individuals, each download is obviously doing at least one install, but most of them are doing multiple installs per download. I think it is a pretty safe assumption to say we have probably over 1.5 million installs. We are probably over 2 million installs. Were probably over 3 million installs at this point. But it is hard to tell. This is where the SWAG comes in. It is a guess, can not tell you exactly, but that is in three months. Now, if you look at the graph of downloads, of course there was a gigantic spike on release. Every time there is a press release or an event like this, we get another spike. But basically what ends up happening is it is tapering off to something, which is going to be a much more sustainable longer term rate.
I cannot tell you exactly what that rate is because we are still super high. We are still coming down from a major spike, but it is still massive in terms of the number of users we have. Now I am going to approach it from the other direction. At some point, CentOS was serving and installed on approximately 50% of Enterprise servers, which were reachable via Netcraft. I remember a Netcraft survey being done a long time ago where CentOS was one of the primary dominant operating systems. I went back, tried to find these things, but could not find them. I even went back through the archive trying to find these things and could not find them.
I had a look as well and could not find it.
I know it was there. Here is what has happened over the past I would say five-ish years. Since then, Red Hat took over CentOS. I do not mean to imply that had a negative effect on it, but in combination with that, Canonical was shifting their business focus significantly. They did a fantastic job pivoting from laptops and workstations to cloud and Enterprise. I have to hand it to them, they did a really good job on this. As a result, Canonical and Ubuntu usage started coming up and went up quite a bit. The last survey I saw was about 20% to 25% of Enterprise and cloud resources are running CentOS today about 20% to 25%. I think it is fair to say, at this point, they know Rocky is going to take over for a large percentage of that.
I can not say exactly what percent, but I think it is fair to say. I also think it is fair to say that if we consider Enterprise servers, or rather, the Enterprise Linux standard, which is what was previously Red Hat Enterprise Linux. We look at this as now all of a sudden we have an Enterprise Linux standard, right? Red Hat with CentOS Stream, Red Hat pushed their development, behind closed doors into the community, which is a good thing. Now, we have this Enterprise Linux standard up there and we have many derivatives of that Enterprise Linux standard. We have, obviously Rocky. We have Redhead Enterprise Linux. We have Oracle. We have Almo.
There are a bunch of them out there. There is Navy. I know I am forgetting at least a couple of them at this point, but there are a bunch of these is what I am saying. If we count all of these as together, because they all should be compatible with each other. We count all of these together as the Enterprise Linux standard. I think together all of the open source projects behind this Red Hat and everybody, if we work together, I think we can actually start moving back toward 50%. But, we have to work together.